🏛️Politics
Closes Aug 26 · Results Aug 27
Will a Russian state ship or military aircraft board, seize, or forcibly divert a foreign‑flagged merchant vessel in the Mediterranean?
17%
-2% last 24h
741 bets · 15.6K credits3
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PoliticsResults Aug 13
Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election on August 13, 2026?
68%
Stable · last 24h
📊 299 bettors💎 6.6K at stake
ResolvedYes
Resolved: Yes
Results Aug 13🤖 Context
The market resolves to yes if Nigel Farage won the Clacton by-election on 13 August 2026, and to no if he did not. Official records show that on 13 August 2026 Nigel Farage was elected Member of Parliament for Clacton with 22,239 votes, and the returning officer's declaration on Tendring District Council's site gives the same total, with Count Binface second on 9,455 votes. Because those official results and major news outlets report Farage as the victor, the condition that he won on 13 August 2026 is met, so this market resolves to yes.
How markets are built and settledHow this market resolved
Yes68%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 68% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: Multiple independent, credible sources in the supplied evidence unambiguously report that Nigel Farage won the Clacton by-election held on 13 August 2026. The UK Parliament’s official news page records that he was re-elected as Member of Parliament for Clacton and presents the result table (Nigel Farage 22,239 votes). The returning officer’s declaration on Tendring District Council’s website gives the same winner and vote total. Major news organisations (BBC, Reuters, The Guardian, Al Jazeera) likewise report Farage as the victor, with Count Binface second on 9,455 votes. These independent, corroborating sources establish the outcome as Farage winning the 13 August 2026 by-election.
Source: parliament.ukKey facts
- Crowd probability
- 68%
- Predictions made
- 299
- Credits staked
- 6,625
- Comments
- 1
- Opened
- Jul 10, 2026
- Closes
- Aug 13, 2026
- Resolved
- Aug 14, 2026
- Outcome
- Yes
- Resolution source
- parliament.uk, tendringdc.gov.uk, bbc.com
🔍 Sources
Sources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settled💬 1 comment
- 🐷@frederic27180Bet Yes· 100 💎
Confirmation from several sources, he is re-elected
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