Will Anthropic's market share be above 2.6%?

59%
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51%
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YES if, no later than October 1, 2026, OpenAI's official subscription/pricing pages or official help center/blog indicate the "Pro" tier is available to new customers with United States billing, meaning a typical new U.S. consumer account can complete a Pro purchase via the public sign-up/checkout flow without requiring an invitation or enterprise‑only access. Availability limited to renewals, invite‑only waitlists, enterprise contracts, or only through third‑party resellers does NOT count. Otherwise NO.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Oct 2, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Oct 2, 2026. The outcome will be settled against techcrunch.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 51%, based on 0 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledOpenAI is likely to roll out the Pro tier for new U.S. users by the deadline, especially with the growing demand and competitive pressure. Watch for updates on their official channels soon.

59%
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45%
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32%
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81%
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85%
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78%
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