🌦️Science·WeatherCloses Sep 3
Will tropical cyclone Karina reach Saffir‑Simpson Category 4 intensity?
74%
+40% last 24h
1779 bets · 53K credits6
Details →
ScienceResults Aug 16
Will NASA’s Swift Observatory orbit‑boosting servicing mission launch by July 31, 2026?
49%
Stable · last 24h
📊 110 bettors💎 3.7K at stake
ResolvedYes
Resolved: Yes
Results Aug 16🤖 Context
The market required that the robotic servicing mission to boost NASA’s Neil Gehrels Swift Observatory launch on or before July 31, 2026, according to official launch records. Katalyst’s mission page and multiple news outlets report that the LINK mission launched on July 3, 2026 at 04:36 EDT, with a Pegasus XL air launch from the Stargazer over the Marshall Islands and follow‑up updates describing post‑launch commissioning. Because the launch occurred on July 3, 2026, which is before July 31, 2026, the condition is met and the market resolves as yes.
How markets are built and settledHow this market resolved
Yes49%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 51% sure, and they got it wrong.
Why: Multiple independent, credible sources in the supplied evidence report that the LINK robotic servicing mission launched on July 3, 2026. Katalyst’s mission page explicitly records 'LAUNCHED July 3, 2026 · 04:36 EDT' and subsequent mission updates describe post-launch commissioning. Reuters, CNN, CBS News and Astronomy also report the Pegasus XL air-launch from the Stargazer over the Marshall Islands and that LINK reached orbit on July 3, 2026. These independent, corroborating accounts establish the launch occurred on or before July 31, 2026.
Source: reuters.comKey facts
- Crowd probability
- 49%
- Predictions made
- 110
- Credits staked
- 3,682
- Comments
- 1
- Opened
- May 21, 2026
- Closes
- Aug 15, 2026
- Resolved
- Aug 16, 2026
- Outcome
- Yes
- Resolution source
- reuters.com, cnn.com, cbsnews.com
🔍 Sources
Sources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settled💬 1 comment
- 🚀@kiks.starBet No· 10 💎
Sometimes it’s too slow
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