ScienceResults Sep 1

Will NASA’s SunRISE mission launch before the end of August 2026?

56%

Stable · last 24h

📊 120 bettors💎 3.3K at stake

ResolvedNo

Resolved: No

Results Sep 1

🤖 Context

To resolve this market, SunRISE had to lift off and reach orbit by 23:59 UTC on August 31, 2026. On July 13, 2026 NASA announced SunRISE would switch to a SpaceX Falcon Heavy and that an updated launch date would be provided later, and independent reporting the next day said the mission was awaiting a new launch date, while after the deadline the JPL mission page still listed the launch date as TBD and the status as Future with no reports of a launch or orbital insertion. Because it did not lift off and reach orbit by 23:59 UTC on August 31, 2026, the market resolves no.

How markets are built and settled

How this market resolved

56%

Final crowd probability

The crowd was 56% sure, and they got it wrong.

Why: NASA announced on July 13, 2026 that SunRISE was switching to a SpaceX Falcon Heavy and that updated launch timing would be provided later, indicating no imminent launch. Independent reporting the next day confirmed the mission was awaiting a new launch date. As of after the deadline, the JPL mission page still lists Launch Date as TBD and Status as Future, with no reports of a launch or orbit insertion. Therefore, SunRISE did not lift off and reach orbit by Aug 31, 2026.

Source: science.nasa.gov