Will Sophie Adenot return to Earth inside a SpaceX Crew Dragon capsule?

65%
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28%
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YES if, no later than September 14, 2026, the City of Marseille (Mairie de Marseille / Ville de Marseille) publishes an explicit public statement (official press release, municipal decree, or a communiqué on the city's official website or an official mayoral communication) saying municipal lifeguard/bathing surveillance will resume at one or more named municipal Marseille beaches, with a specified effective start date on or before that cutoff. Announcements limited to private/non‑municipal beaches, hiring offers without a confirmed restart date, vague statements that surveillance is "under study", or unofficial social‑media posts do not count. Local or national news outlets directly quoting the city also count as evidence.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Sep 14, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 15, 2026. The outcome will be settled against tf1info.fr. For now, the crowd puts YES at 28%, based on 47 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledGiven the deadline is just a week away and the official confirmation is still pending, it seems unlikely that municipal surveillance will be reinstated in time.

65%
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83%
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90%
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69%
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36%
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59%
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