Will Morena top 38% in the latest national poll?

🤖 Context

YES if the single most recent national voting-intention poll for the 2027 Mexican legislative election listed on the Wikipedia page 'Opinion polling for the 2027 Mexican legislative election', as it appears no later than September 18, 2026, shows Morena strictly greater than 38.0 percentage points. If the most recent poll lists Morena exactly 38.0%, omits a Morena percentage, shows 'Did not exist', reports only ranges without a single numerical percentage, or if the page contains no national voting-intention poll, the market resolves NO. If two or more polls share the same newest fieldwork end date use the poll that appears first on the page, and verifiers should prefer the pollster's official release or major Mexican news reporting to confirm the figure.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Sep 19, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 19, 2026. The outcome will be settled against en.wikipedia.org. For now, the crowd puts YES at 50%, based on 0 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

50%

Predictions made

0

Credits staked

0

Comments

1

Opened

Sep 4, 2026

Closes

Sep 19, 2026

Expected resolution

Sep 19, 2026

Resolution source

en.wikipedia.org

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Sep 19, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Sep 19, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 50% and NO 50%, based on 0 predictions and 0 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against en.wikipedia.org once the outcome is known.

Is “Will Morena top 38% in the latest national poll?” real-money betting?

No. “Will Morena top 38% in the latest national poll?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.