Morena dépassera-t-elle 38 % dans le dernier sondage national ?

Pourquoi : Extracted condition: the single most recent national voting-intention poll listed on the specified Wikipedia page as it appeared at 2026-09-19T00:00:00-06:00 must report 'Morena' strictly greater than 38.0% to resolve YES; otherwise NO. Target: the single most recent poll on the page (use poll with latest fieldwork end date; if tied choose the topmost). Supplied page data (most recent first) shows the topmost poll is LaEncuesta.MX, fieldwork 28–30 Aug (most recent), with Morena = 37.6%. Comparison: 37.6% is not strictly greater than 38.0% (37.6 < 38.0), so the condition is false and the market resolves NO. (Note: an older poll on the page, Enkoll 25–29 Aug, lists Morena = 41.0%, but it is not the most recent and therefore is not used.)