Will Russian forces carry out an air, missile, or drone strike that hits the SBU headquarters in Kyiv?

68%
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38%
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YES if, by the resolution date, the U.S. Supreme Court issues any written order, opinion, emergency stay, or similar court order that authorizes Missouri election officials to implement and use the GOP-backed congressional map on ballots for the November 2026 general election. The Court’s action must be shown by the Court’s published order or docket and corroborated by an official statement from the Missouri Secretary of State or major wire reporting. If the Court’s action is purely procedural or expressly prohibits use, resolve NO. If the order allows use in only some districts, count YES only if Missouri officials publicly announce they will use the GOP-backed map statewide for November 2026 ballots. If implementation remains blocked in any district so the map is not used statewide, resolve NO.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Sep 10, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Oct 21, 2026. The outcome will be settled against san.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 38%, based on 2 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledWith the Supreme Court's deadline looming, it's unlikely they'll clear the GOP-backed map for Missouri. Too much legal maneuvering still in play, so I'm betting NO.

68%
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63%
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46%
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83%
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70%
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79%
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