Will North Korea launch a ballistic missile or publicly declare a weapons test?

33%
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53%
Stable · last 24h
YES if the U.S. Supreme Court issues a public order or written ruling that explicitly denies Missouri's emergency application seeking permission to use the disputed 2025 congressional map in the November election. NO if the Court issues any order that grants the state's application in whole or in part, issues a temporary administrative order allowing use, or if there is only routine procedural scheduling without a denial. Ordinary reporting by two or more independent news organizations is sufficient to resolve YES, and the Court's posted order on its website is preferred as a pointer.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Sep 9, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 14, 2026. The outcome will be settled against san.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 53%, based on 0 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledThe Supreme Court is unlikely to deny Missouri’s request outright. Given the political stakes and the timeline, I expect they'll allow at least some use of the map.

33%
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61%
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56%
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80%
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41%
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47%
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