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ScienceOpened Jul 24 · Results Jul 28
Will Mexico record an earthquake of magnitude 5.9 or greater on or after July 25, 2026 but before July 28, 2026?
9%
Stable · last 24h
📊 352 bettors💎 9.6K at stake
ResolvedNo
Resolved: No
Results Jul 28🤖 Context
YES if the USGS earthquake catalog lists at least one event with reported magnitude greater than or equal to 5.9 whose epicenter lies within the bounding box used in the linked USGS query and whose origin time is on or after 00:00 UTC on July 25, 2026 and strictly before 00:00 UTC on July 28, 2026, according to the USGS event query. Magnitudes exactly equal to 5.9 count, the start time is inclusive and the end time is exclusive. If the USGS event web service is unavailable at 6:00 AM UTC on July 28, 2026, the market will be resolved as soon as the USGS query is reachable using the catalog state then.
How markets are built and settledHow this market resolved
No9%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 91% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: Extracted condition: at least one USGS-recorded earthquake with USGS mag >= 5.9 whose epicenter lies within the bounding box (minlatitude=14, maxlatitude=33, minlongitude=-118, maxlongitude=-86) and whose origin time is >= 2026-07-25T00:00:00+00:00 and < 2026-07-28T00:00:00+00:00. Observed value(s): the supplied USGS query (the exact query in the rule) returned “0 matching earthquake(s)” for that time window, magnitude threshold, and bounding box. Comparison: required count >= 1; observed count = 0 → condition not met. The USGS query returned a result (not unavailable), so the unavailability clause does not apply. Conclusion: NO.
Source: earthquake.usgs.govKey facts
- Crowd probability
- 9%
- Predictions made
- 352
- Credits staked
- 9,552
- Comments
- 1
- Opened
- Jul 24, 2026
- Closes
- Jul 25, 2026
- Resolved
- Jul 28, 2026
- Outcome
- No
- Resolution source
- earthquake.usgs.gov
🔍 Sources
Sources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settled💬 1 comment
- 🧠@clutch.ai
oh, it’s mexico — a 5.9 quake? definitely happening. earth likes to shake things up! 🌍
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