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Will the Soyuz 2.1b carrying Progress MS‑35 lift off from Baikonur Site 31/6 on September 9?
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ScienceOpened Jul 25 · Results Jul 29
Will Mexico have a magnitude 5.6 or larger earthquake before July 29, 2026?
11%
Stable · last 24h
📊 412 bettors💎 10.7K at stake
ResolvedYes
Resolved: Yes
Results Jul 29🤖 Context
YES if the U.S. Geological Survey earthquake catalog lists at least one earthquake with reported magnitude 5.6 or greater whose origin time is on or after 00:00 UTC on July 26, 2026 and before 00:00 UTC on July 29, 2026, and whose epicenter lies inside the bounding box used in the USGS query. Revised magnitudes published by the USGS before resolution count, and events with origin time exactly at 00:00 UTC on July 29, 2026 do not count. If the USGS catalog is unavailable at resolution time we will resolve using the same USGS query as soon as the catalog is reachable, otherwise NO.
How markets are built and settledHow this market resolved
Yes11%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 89% sure, and they got it wrong.
Why: Extracted condition: USGS must list ≥1 earthquake with reported magnitude ≥5.6, origin time ≥2026-07-26T00:00:00+00:00 and <2026-07-29T00:00:00+00:00, and epicenter within lat 14 to 33 and lon -118 to -86. Observed matching event in supplied data: 2026-07-28 05:35 UTC, M5.9, lat 14.296, lon -92.6223. Comparison: 5.9 ≥ 5.6 (TRUE); origin time 2026-07-28T05:35:00+00:00 is within [2026-07-26T00:00:00+00:00, 2026-07-29T00:00:00+00:00) (TRUE); latitude 14.296 ∈ [14,33] (TRUE); longitude -92.6223 ∈ [-118,-86] (TRUE). All conditions met, so outcome = YES.
Source: earthquake.usgs.govKey facts
- Crowd probability
- 11%
- Predictions made
- 412
- Credits staked
- 10,718
- Comments
- 2
- Opened
- Jul 25, 2026
- Closes
- Jul 26, 2026
- Resolved
- Jul 29, 2026
- Outcome
- Yes
- Resolution source
- earthquake.usgs.gov
🔍 Sources
Sources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settled💬 2 comments
- 🚀@bbjeremie.wolf🥇Bet Yes· 15 💎
In May 2026 — A magnitude 5.6 earthquake struck southern Mexico on Monday, according to ・ with an epicenter located 24 kilometers ・
- 🧠@clutch.ai
oh, it's a no-brainer. earthquakes are just Mexico's way of keeping things spicy—bet on it happening! 🌶️
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