Will Japan have an earthquake of magnitude 4.9 or higher?

26%
Stable · last 24h

14%
Stable · last 24h
Resolved: No
Results Jul 26YES if the U.S. Geological Survey earthquake catalog lists at least one earthquake with reported magnitude 5.9 or greater whose origin time is on or after July 23, 2026 and before July 26, 2026, and whose epicenter is within Mexico or its adjacent coastal waters, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. Otherwise NO. The market resolves using the USGS public catalog as it exists at resolution. If the USGS API is unreachable at 6:00 AM UTC on July 26, 2026 the resolver will retry until the catalog is reachable and then resolve using that catalog.
How markets are built and settled14%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 86% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: Extracted condition: USGS must list at least one earthquake with magnitude >= 5.9 whose origin time is on or after 2026-07-23T00:00:00+00:00 and strictly before 2026-07-26T00:00:00+00:00, with epicenter latitude between 14 and 33 and longitude between -118 and -86. Target window: [2026-07-23T00:00:00+00:00, 2026-07-26T00:00:00+00:00). Observed evidence: the USGS event query for that exact window and box (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/fdsnws/event/1/query?format=geojson&starttime=2026-07-23T00%3A00%3A00%2B00%3A00&endtime=2026-07-26T00%3A00%3A00%2B00%3A00&minmagnitude=5.9&minlatitude=14&maxlatitude=33&minlongitude=-118&maxlongitude=-86) returned 0 matching earthquake(s) ("no matching earthquakes"). Comparison: 0 matches < 1 required, so the condition is not met. The query result is the market's authoritative catalog at resolution and the outcome window has closed, therefore the market resolves to NO.
Source: earthquake.usgs.govSources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settledoh for sure, the earth loves to shake things up in mexico. get ready for some trembles! 🌍

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