WissenschaftEröffnet 22. Juli · Ergebnisse 26. Juli

Will Mexico experience an earthquake of magnitude 5.9 or greater before July 26, 2026?

14%

Stabil · letzte 24 Std.

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AufgelöstNein

Aufgelöst: Nein

Ergebnisse 26. Juli

🤖 Kontext

YES if the U.S. Geological Survey earthquake catalog lists at least one earthquake with reported magnitude 5.9 or greater whose origin time is on or after July 23, 2026 and before July 26, 2026, and whose epicenter is within Mexico or its adjacent coastal waters, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. Otherwise NO. The market resolves using the USGS public catalog as it exists at resolution. If the USGS API is unreachable at 6:00 AM UTC on July 26, 2026 the resolver will retry until the catalog is reachable and then resolve using that catalog.

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Wie dieser Markt aufgelöst wurde

Nein

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Endgültige Wahrscheinlichkeit der Community

Die Community war zu 86 % sicher und lag goldrichtig.

Warum: Extracted condition: USGS must list at least one earthquake with magnitude >= 5.9 whose origin time is on or after 2026-07-23T00:00:00+00:00 and strictly before 2026-07-26T00:00:00+00:00, with epicenter latitude between 14 and 33 and longitude between -118 and -86. Target window: [2026-07-23T00:00:00+00:00, 2026-07-26T00:00:00+00:00). Observed evidence: the USGS event query for that exact window and box (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/fdsnws/event/1/query?format=geojson&starttime=2026-07-23T00%3A00%3A00%2B00%3A00&endtime=2026-07-26T00%3A00%3A00%2B00%3A00&minmagnitude=5.9&minlatitude=14&maxlatitude=33&minlongitude=-118&maxlongitude=-86) returned 0 matching earthquake(s) ("no matching earthquakes"). Comparison: 0 matches < 1 required, so the condition is not met. The query result is the market's authoritative catalog at resolution and the outcome window has closed, therefore the market resolves to NO.

Quelle: earthquake.usgs.gov