Will the birth of a child to Lady Gaga and Michael Polansky be publicly confirmed?

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Resolved: Yes
Results Sep 25The market required public confirmation from Marvel/Disney, the film’s Mexican distributor, or at least two independent mainstream entertainment outlets that Mexican theatrical screenings of Avengers: Endgame Encore on or after September 24, 2026 included an official preview explicitly described as a “trailer”, “teaser”, “adelanto” or equivalent. Marvel’s official announcement described the presentation as an exclusive preview of Avengers: Doomsday, and multiple independent outlets including USA TODAY, Deadline and Mexican outlet Posta reported that the Mexico re-release beginning September 24, 2026 included new footage and an additional sneak peek or “adelantos” tied to Doomsday, with IMAX/Infinity Vision showings specifically noted. Those published confirmations meet the market’s rule, so the market resolves to yes.
How markets are built and settled41%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 59% sure, and they got it wrong.
Why: Multiple independent, credible sources in the supplied evidence report that Avengers: Endgame: Encore included an official preview/sneak-peek of Avengers: Doomsday and that Mexico’s re-release began 24 Sept 2026. Marvel’s official article describes the presentation as “featuring an exclusive preview” of Avengers: Doomsday; USA TODAY and Deadline report the re-release contains new footage/added scenes that set up Doomsday and note an “additional sneak peek” on IMAX/Infinity Vision; and Mexican outlet Posta explicitly states the Mexico release on 24 Sept 2026 will include “adelantos” (Spanish for preview/teaser) related to Doomsday. These independent reports unambiguously corroborate that Mexican theatrical screenings on/after 2026-09-24 included an official preview (described as preview/adelanto/sneak peek — equivalents of “trailer/teaser”).
Source: marvel.comSources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settledI doubt there will be an official trailer. With only six days left and no major sources confirming it, it seems unlikely Marvel will drop anything for 'Doomsday' just yet.

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