Will metropolitan France have at least four separate heatwave episodes in 2026?

🤖 Context

YES if Météo‑France's official published count in an official bulletin, seasonal summary, press release, or equivalent public statement records four or more distinct heatwave episodes in 2026 and indicates the fourth occurred no later than August 31, 2026. Otherwise NO. Confirmations from major French news agencies are accepted only if they explicitly cite Météo‑France's published count.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Aug 31, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 1, 2026. The outcome will be settled against tf1info.fr. For now, the crowd puts YES at 66%, based on 86 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

66%

Predictions made

86

Credits staked

2,578

Comments

1

Opened

Aug 17, 2026

Closes

Aug 31, 2026

Expected resolution

Sep 1, 2026

Resolution source

tf1info.fr

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Aug 31, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Sep 1, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 66% and NO 34%, based on 86 predictions and 2.6K 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against tf1info.fr once the outcome is known.

Is “Will metropolitan France have at least four separate heatwave episodes in 2026?” real-money betting?

No. “Will metropolitan France have at least four separate heatwave episodes in 2026?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.