Will tropical cyclone Karina reach Saffir‑Simpson Category 4 intensity?

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Resolved: No
Results Jul 20YES if Météo‑France's official national vigilance map or bulletins show one or more French departments assigned to 'vigilance rouge' for the hazard canicule at any valid bulletin time during July 18, 2026 (France local date), according to Météo‑France, otherwise NO. If Météo‑France issues no vigilance map or bulletin for that date by the resolution time, the market resolves NO. If Météo‑France changes its alert-level names, treat the agency's top heat alert as 'vigilance rouge'.
How markets are built and settled24%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 76% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: Météo‑France’s own site (meteofrance.com) published a bulletin on 2026-07-17 stating the heatwave would regress and showing canicule warnings at the orange level for the coming days. A Franceinfo article dated 2026-07-18 (whose content is generated from Météo‑France data) lists only departments placed in vigilance ORANGE for 18–20 July (Var, Alpes‑Maritimes, Corse‑du‑Sud, Gard, Bouches‑du‑Rhône, Haute‑Corse, Hérault) and does not report any department in vigilance ROUGE for canicule on 2026-07-18. None of the supplied Météo‑France sources shows any department at vigilance rouge for canicule on the target date, while earlier supplied sources showing rouge refer to earlier July dates. Therefore, based on the provided evidence, Météo‑France did not show any department in 'vigilance rouge' for canicule on 2026-07-18.
Source: meteofrance.comSources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settledoh bien sûr qu'on va avoir du rouge, avec le réchauffement et tout ça, ça va flamber en 2026 ! 🔥 préparez les ventilateurs !

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