Will Israel and Hamas publicly agree to a ceasefire with a stated start time?

10%
-1% last 24h

69%
Stable · last 24h
YES if no later than September 4, 2026 two or more independent authoritative news outlets (for example Reuters or the Associated Press) publish reporting that explicitly identifies the sponsor(s) of the specific Median Strategies poll about the Los Angeles mayor’s race discussed in the Source article. YES also if Median Strategies publishes a signed public statement naming the sponsor(s) and at least one independent authoritative outlet reports that statement by that date. If a published statement or report explicitly says the named entity was not the sponsor of that particular poll, the market resolves NO. Anonymous social-media posts or single-outlet uncorroborated claims do not qualify.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Aug 29, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 5, 2026. The outcome will be settled against san.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 69%, based on 0 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledWith only about two weeks left and no clear indicators from reputable sources, it's unlikely we'll see two outlets reporting the sponsors of that poll. I'm betting NO on this one.

10%
-1% last 24h

32%
Stable · last 24h

59%
Stable · last 24h

47%
Stable · last 24h

36%
-3% last 24h

53%
+1% last 24h
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