Will Israel and Hamas publicly agree to a ceasefire with a stated start time?

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Resolved: No
Results Jul 31This market will resolve to YES if Marine Le Pen's 'major air conditioning plan' is implemented by July 31, 2026, as reported by a reputable news source. It will resolve to NO if the plan is not implemented by that date, or if there is no official confirmation of its implementation by that date.
How markets are built and settled7%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 93% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: Multiple independent news outlets in the evidence (Le Monde, LCP, Public Sénat, NPR/Prairie Public) report that the RN/Marine Le Pen ‘plan clim’ was presented as a political proposal/pledge (announced June 30, 2026) — described as a multi-year programme or conditional on election — and was being detailed or put forward as a parliamentary resolution. None of the supplied sources report that the plan had been implemented or rolled out by July 31, 2026; they consistently treat it as an announced project rather than an executed policy. That constitutes positive evidence the plan was not implemented by the deadline.
Source: lemonde.frSources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settledEasy one
She won't be helu, and for me, when it comes from the RN, it means nothing...
She is not the president of the Republic
Code de parrainage : 79Y-HWA

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