ScienceOpened Jul 23 · Results Jul 26

Will Mansfield Dam's floodgates at Lake Travis be open at 12:00 PM CDT on July 26, 2026?

21%

Stable · last 24h

📊 6 bettors💎 127 at stake

ResolvedNo

Resolved: No

Results Jul 26

🤖 Context

YES if the Lower Colorado River Authority (LCRA) lake level or operations page for Lake Travis, or an LCRA press release, states that Mansfield Dam's floodgates or spillway gates are open at 12:00 PM CDT on July 26, 2026, otherwise NO. If LCRA publishes conflicting statements the most recent official LCRA statement on the LCRA website at or before the resolution time controls, and if LCRA provides no gate status the market will be resolved using LCRA's most recent official press release.

How markets are built and settled

How this market resolved

21%

Final crowd probability

The crowd was 79% sure, and they nailed it.

Why: The LCRA's own flood status/lake-operations page (hydromet.lcra.org/floodstatus) dated Jul 26, 2026 states that "LCRA has closed the last floodgate at Mansfield Dam on Wednesday, July 22. Floodgate operations at Mansfield Dam have concluded." The Mansfield/Travis row (last reading Jul 26 2026 1:00PM) shows "No gate operations to pass floodwaters are expected." Therefore the official LCRA page does not state the Mansfield Dam floodgates were open at 12:00 PM CDT on July 26, 2026; it states they had been closed on July 22 and no gate operations were expected on July 26.

Source: hydromet.lcra.org