Will the US, South Korea and Japan start a joint military exercise that includes forces from all three countries?

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Resolved: Yes
Results Aug 2YES if the Maine Secretary of State's official certified candidate list for the November 3, 2026 U.S. Senate election, as posted on the Maine Secretary of State website, shows at least one certified Democratic nominee whose legal name is not "Graham Platner" on or before 11:59 PM on August 1, 2026 Eastern Time. If multiple certified Democratic nominees are posted, the market resolves YES if at least one has a legal name other than "Graham Platner". If no certified candidate list for that race is posted by the resolution time, the market resolves NO.
How markets are built and settled78%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 78% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: Multiple independent, credible sources in the supplied evidence report that Maine Democrats replaced Graham Platner with a different Democratic nominee before August 1, 2026. Wikipedia states Jackson was selected to replace Platner at a nominating convention on July 25, 2026; Ballotpedia’s coverage lists Troy Dale Jackson as the Democratic candidate on the general-election candidate list; and The Maine Monitor’s election coverage reports Platner was replaced by Troy Jackson (reported around July 27). The Maine Secretary of State had confirmed Platner’s formal withdrawal (7/10/2026) and the party’s deadline to submit a replacement was July 27, 2026. Taken together, these independent reports show Maine’s certified candidate list for the Nov. 3, 2026 U.S. Senate election includes at least one certified Democratic nominee whose legal name is not “Graham Platner.”
Source: ballotpedia.orgSources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settledlol, yeah, there's gotta be at least one more democrat jumping in the ring before 2026. platner can't be the only fish in this pond! 🐟

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