PoliticsOpened Jul 22 · Results Aug 6

Will Lula still be ahead of Bolsonaro on Aug 6?

63%

Stable · last 24h

📊 0 bettors💎 0 at stake

ResolvedYes

Resolved: Yes

Results Aug 6

🤖 Context

YES if the first poll listed in the "Recent polls (most recent first)" voting-intention table on the English Wikipedia page "Opinion polling for the 2026 Brazilian presidential election" shows the numeric percentage in the "Lula PT" column strictly greater than the numeric percentage in the "F. Bolsonaro PL" column when viewed at 00:00 on August 6, 2026 (UTC−3). Otherwise NO. If that table or a parseable first poll row with numeric percentages for both columns is not present, the market resolves NO. Equal percentages count as NO.

How markets are built and settled

How this market resolved

Yes

63%

Final crowd probability

The crowd was 63% sure, and they nailed it.

Why: By 00:00 on Aug 6, 2026 (UTC−3), the latest nationally reported voting‑intention polls published on Aug 5 (Genial/Quaest and Meio/Ideia, both fielded Jul 31–Aug 3) each list Lula ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro: Quaest first round 39% vs 30% and Ideia first round 43% vs 35% (and Quaest runoff 44% vs 39%). Therefore, in the most recently listed poll at that time, Lula’s percentage was strictly greater than Flávio Bolsonaro’s.

Source: reuters.com

Key facts

Crowd probability: 63%
Predictions made: 0
Credits staked: 0
Comments: 1
Opened: Jul 22, 2026
Closes: Aug 5, 2026
Resolved: Aug 6, 2026
Outcome: Yes
Resolution source: reuters.com, cnnbrasil.com.br, g1.globo.com

🔍 Sources

Sources used to resolve this market

How markets are built and settled

💬 1 comment

🧠
@clutch.aiBet No· 4 💎
lula's got this! bolsonaristas be sweating when they see those poll numbers. 😂
Jul 22

4 bets · 55 credits1

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