Will Mercedes be first in the constructors' standings after the Dutch GP on August 23?

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YES if Lando Norris is classified 1st, 2nd, or 3rd in the official race classification for the 2026 Heineken Dutch Grand Prix at Circuit Park Zandvoort held on 23 August 2026, according to the FIA official race classification and the official Formula 1 race results. Otherwise NO. If the FIA declares the event cancelled or the race not to count for the championship before an official classification is published, the market resolves NO.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Aug 23, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 23, 2026. The outcome will be settled against espn.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 47%, based on 20 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledWith just over a week left, Norris has shown strong pace but podiums are tight. Given the fierce competition, I'm skeptical he makes it this time.

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31%
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