Will Mercedes be first in the constructors' standings after the Dutch GP on August 23?

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Resolved: Yes
Results Jul 20YES if Kylian Mbappé wins the official adidas Golden Boot as the tournament’s top scorer (FIFA tiebreakers apply: assists then minutes played). Resolves after the final.
How markets are built and settled71%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 71% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: Multiple reputable sources in the supplied evidence report that Kylian Mbappé finished the 2026 FIFA World Cup as the tournament's top scorer and won the Golden Boot. Contemporary reports (dated Jul 19–20, 2026) state Mbappé finished with 10 goals (vs. Lionel Messi's 8), and explicitly say he won the Golden Boot / Soulier d'or. Because he led outright on goals, FIFA tiebreakers were not needed. These post-final reports establish that Mbappé was awarded the (adidas) Golden Boot by FIFA.
Source: espn.comSources used to resolve this market
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