ScienceResults Jul 24

Will Kilauea reach 'WATCH' (heightened alert) or 'WARNING' (top alert, eruption imminent) before July 24?

51%

Stable · last 24h

📊 48 bettors💎 1.1K at stake

ResolvedNo

Resolved: No

Results Jul 24

🤖 Context

YES if, according to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Volcano Updates page or the USGS Volcano Notification Service (HANS), Kilauea's Volcano Alert Level is recorded as 'WATCH' or 'WARNING' at any time on or after July 21, 2026 at 00:00 UTC and strictly before July 24, 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Otherwise NO. If the USGS has no published alert level for Kilauea at resolution time, this market will be resolved using the first subsequent USGS publication that includes Kilauea's alert level.

How markets are built and settled

How this market resolved

51%

Final crowd probability

The crowd was 51% sure, and they got it wrong.

Why: Extracted condition: Kilauea's USGS Volcano Alert Level must be WATCH or WARNING at any time on or after 2026-07-21T00:00:00Z and strictly before 2026-07-24T00:00:00Z. Data retrieved 2026-07-24 06:00 UTC shows: "Kilauea: ADVISORY — level unchanged since 2026-07-16 03:06:24 UTC (previous level: WATCH)". The last change to ADVISORY occurred before the window start (2026-07-21T00:00:00Z), so the level was ADVISORY throughout the entire window and was not WATCH or WARNING at any time in [2026-07-21T00:00:00Z, 2026-07-24T00:00:00Z). Therefore the market resolves NO.

Source: usgs.gov