Will Kilauea reach 'WATCH' (heightened alert) or 'WARNING' (top alert, eruption imminent) before July 24?

🤖 Context

YES if, according to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Volcano Updates page or the USGS Volcano Notification Service (HANS), Kilauea's Volcano Alert Level is recorded as 'WATCH' or 'WARNING' at any time on or after July 21, 2026 at 00:00 UTC and strictly before July 24, 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Otherwise NO. If the USGS has no published alert level for Kilauea at resolution time, this market will be resolved using the first subsequent USGS publication that includes Kilauea's alert level.