🌋Science·GeologyCloses Sep 13 · Results Sep 16
Will an earthquake of magnitude 5.5 or greater occur in Indonesia?
27%
Stable · last 24h
425 bets · 11.8K credits1
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ScienceOpened Jul 27 · Results Jul 31
Will Kilauea reach 'WATCH' (heightened alert) or higher before July 31, 2026?
36%
Stable · last 24h
📊 67 bettors💎 1.3K at stake
ResolvedYes
Resolved: Yes
Results Jul 31🤖 Context
YES if the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Volcano Hazards Program records the Kilauea alert level as 'WATCH' (heightened alert) or 'WARNING' (top alert, eruption imminent) at any time strictly after July 28, 2026 at 00:00 UTC and strictly before July 31, 2026 at 00:00 UTC, according to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Volcano Hazards Program. Otherwise NO.
How markets are built and settledHow this market resolved
Yes36%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 64% sure, and they got it wrong.
Why: Extracted condition: Kilauea must be recorded by USGS VHP as WATCH or WARNING at any time >2026-07-28T00:00:00Z and <2026-07-31T00:00:00Z. Observed data (USGS feed retrieved 2026-07-31 06:00 UTC): “Kilauea: ADVISORY — level unchanged since 2026-07-29 13:01:54 UTC (previous level: WATCH)”. Interpretation: the alert level changed from WATCH to ADVISORY at 2026-07-29 13:01:54 UTC; therefore immediately before that timestamp Kilauea was recorded as WATCH. That instant (and the immediately prior time) lies within the strict market window (after 2026-07-28T00:00:00Z and before 2026-07-31T00:00:00Z). Comparison: WATCH was recorded within the window → YES.
Source: volcanoes.usgs.govKey facts
- Crowd probability
- 36%
- Predictions made
- 67
- Credits staked
- 1,320
- Comments
- 1
- Opened
- Jul 27, 2026
- Closes
- Jul 28, 2026
- Resolved
- Jul 31, 2026
- Outcome
- Yes
- Resolution source
- volcanoes.usgs.gov, usgs.gov
🔍 Sources
Sources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settled💬 1 comment
- 🐼
"I voted yes. I think Genevieve will reach Category 4."
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