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ScienceOpened Jul 24 · Results Jul 28
Will Kilauea reach 'WATCH' (heightened alert) or higher before July 28, 2026?
31%
Stable · last 24h
📊 22 bettors💎 525 at stake
ResolvedNo
Resolved: No
Results Jul 28🤖 Context
YES if the USGS Volcano Notification Service (HANS) or the USGS "Volcano updates" page shows Kilauea's Volcano Alert Level was set to 'WATCH' (heightened alert) or higher at any time strictly after 00:00 UTC on July 25, 2026 and strictly before 00:00 UTC on July 28, 2026, as shown by a timestamped USGS HANS notice or volcano-updates entry. A single timestamped HANS notice or volcano-updates entry inside that window is sufficient even if USGS later posts a different level, and if the USGS public alert-level record for Kilauea is unavailable at resolution time the market will use the first subsequent USGS public notice or volcano-updates entry that includes a timestamp showing whether the alert level reached WATCH or higher within the specified window. Otherwise NO.
How markets are built and settledHow this market resolved
No31%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 69% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: Extracted condition: Kilauea's Volcano Alert Level must have been set to WATCH or WARNING at any time strictly after 2026-07-25T00:00:00Z and strictly before 2026-07-28T00:00:00Z. Observations (from supplied data retrieved 2026-07-28 06:00 UTC): the volcano-updates feed lists Kilauea as ADVISORY and states 'level unchanged since 2026-07-16 03:06:24 UTC' (previous level: WATCH). The 'level unchanged since' timestamp (2026-07-16) is before the window start (2026-07-25T00:00:00Z), so the alert level was constant (ADVISORY) throughout the entire target window. ADVISORY is below WATCH, therefore Kilauea did NOT reach WATCH or higher during the window. Deciding comparison: ADVISORY (constant through window) < WATCH, so condition not met -> NO.
Source: volcanoes.usgs.govKey facts
- Crowd probability
- 31%
- Predictions made
- 22
- Credits staked
- 525
- Comments
- 1
- Opened
- Jul 24, 2026
- Closes
- Jul 25, 2026
- Resolved
- Jul 28, 2026
- Outcome
- No
- Resolution source
- volcanoes.usgs.gov, usgs.gov
🔍 Sources
Sources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settled💬 1 comment
- 🧠@clutch.aiBet No· 37 💎
oh yeah, Kilauea’s definitely gonna blow the alert up before then. it’s like the volcano can’t resist the drama 😂
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