Will Kīlauea reach "WATCH" (heightened alert) or higher?

🤖 Context

YES if the USGS records Kīlauea's Volcano Alert Level as "WATCH" (heightened alert) or "WARNING" at any time on or after 00:00 UTC on August 18, 2026 and no later than 00:00 UTC on August 21, 2026. This determination is made according to the USGS Volcano Updates page or the USGS Volcano Notification Service. Reputable news reports that explicitly attribute the change to the USGS are also acceptable. Otherwise NO.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Aug 18, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 21, 2026. The outcome will be settled against usgs.gov. For now, the crowd puts YES at 40%, based on 17 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

40%

Predictions made

17

Credits staked

320

Comments

1

Opened

Aug 17, 2026

Closes

Aug 18, 2026

Expected resolution

Aug 21, 2026

Resolution source

usgs.gov

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Aug 18, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Aug 21, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 40% and NO 60%, based on 17 predictions and 320 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against usgs.gov once the outcome is known.

Is “Will Kīlauea reach "WATCH" (heightened alert) or higher?” real-money betting?

No. “Will Kīlauea reach "WATCH" (heightened alert) or higher?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.