Will Kilauea reach 'WATCH' (heightened alert) or higher?

🤖 Context

YES if the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) publishes an official Volcano Alert Level for Kilauea of 'WATCH' (heightened alert) or 'WARNING' at any time no later than 00:00 on August 13, 2026, according to the USGS Volcano Hazards Program. Otherwise NO.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Aug 10, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 13, 2026. The outcome will be settled against usgs.gov. For now, the crowd puts YES at 37%, based on 37 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

37%

Predictions made

37

Credits staked

740

Comments

1

Opened

Aug 9, 2026

Closes

Aug 10, 2026

Expected resolution

Aug 13, 2026

Resolution source

usgs.gov

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Aug 10, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Aug 13, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 37% and NO 63%, based on 37 predictions and 740 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against usgs.gov once the outcome is known.

Is “Will Kilauea reach 'WATCH' (heightened alert) or higher?” real-money betting?

No. “Will Kilauea reach 'WATCH' (heightened alert) or higher?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.