Will Kilauea reach 'WARNING' (top alert, eruption imminent)?

🤖 Context

YES if the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Volcano Hazards Program lists Kilauea's Volcano Alert Level as 'WARNING' at any time strictly after 00:00 UTC on September 14, 2026 and strictly before 00:00 UTC on September 17, 2026, otherwise NO. Only the explicit 'WARNING' level counts, and a USGS timestamp exactly on a window boundary does not count. The USGS is the authoritative source, with reputable independent reporting (e.g., AP, Reuters, major local outlets) acceptable to corroborate.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Sep 14, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 17, 2026. The outcome will be settled against volcanoes.usgs.gov. For now, the crowd puts YES at 18%, based on 62 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

18%

Predictions made

62

Credits staked

1,696

Comments

1

Opened

Sep 13, 2026

Closes

Sep 14, 2026

Expected resolution

Sep 17, 2026

Resolution source

volcanoes.usgs.gov

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Sep 14, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Sep 17, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 18% and NO 82%, based on 62 predictions and 1.7K 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against volcanoes.usgs.gov once the outcome is known.

Is “Will Kilauea reach 'WARNING' (top alert, eruption imminent)?” real-money betting?

No. “Will Kilauea reach 'WARNING' (top alert, eruption imminent)?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.