Will Kilauea go back to "NORMAL" (back to normal)?

🤖 Context

YES if the U.S. Geological Survey publishes an Alert Level of NORMAL for Kilauea at any time on or after 00:00 UTC on September 8, 2026 and no later than 00:00 on September 11, 2026, according to the USGS Volcano Hazards Program or reputable news quoting the USGS. Any single USGS-published alert-level entry of NORMAL within that window resolves YES. Otherwise NO.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Sep 8, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 11, 2026. The outcome will be settled against volcanoes.usgs.gov. For now, the crowd puts YES at 48%, based on 32 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

48%

Predictions made

32

Credits staked

692

Comments

1

Opened

Sep 7, 2026

Closes

Sep 8, 2026

Expected resolution

Sep 11, 2026

Resolution source

volcanoes.usgs.gov

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Sep 8, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Sep 11, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 48% and NO 52%, based on 32 predictions and 692 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against volcanoes.usgs.gov once the outcome is known.

Is “Will Kilauea go back to "NORMAL" (back to normal)?” real-money betting?

No. “Will Kilauea go back to "NORMAL" (back to normal)?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.