Will Kilauea drop back to "NORMAL" (back to normal)?

🤖 Context

YES if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Volcano Hazards Program records that Kilauea was set to alert level "NORMAL" at any time strictly after 00:00 UTC on August 28, 2026 and strictly before 00:00 UTC on August 31, 2026. Otherwise NO. Only an explicit USGS statement of "NORMAL" counts. Media reports are acceptable only if they explicitly quote the USGS alert level and labels such as "UNASSIGNED" do not count.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Aug 28, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 31, 2026. The outcome will be settled against usgs.gov. For now, the crowd puts YES at 29%, based on 25 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

29%

Predictions made

25

Credits staked

670

Comments

1

Opened

Aug 27, 2026

Closes

Aug 28, 2026

Expected resolution

Aug 31, 2026

Resolution source

usgs.gov

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Aug 28, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Aug 31, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 29% and NO 71%, based on 25 predictions and 670 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against usgs.gov once the outcome is known.

Is “Will Kilauea drop back to "NORMAL" (back to normal)?” real-money betting?

No. “Will Kilauea drop back to "NORMAL" (back to normal)?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.