Will Kilauea drop back to "NORMAL" (back to normal)?

🤖 Context

YES if the USGS Volcano Hazards Program's publicly posted Volcano Alert Level for Kilauea is recorded as "NORMAL" at any time on or after 00:00 on August 17, 2026 and no later than 00:00 on August 20, 2026. Otherwise NO. Changes announced before 00:00 on August 17, 2026 do not count.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Aug 17, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 20, 2026. The outcome will be settled against usgs.gov. For now, the crowd puts YES at 29%, based on 14 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

29%

Predictions made

14

Credits staked

623

Comments

1

Opened

Aug 16, 2026

Closes

Aug 17, 2026

Expected resolution

Aug 20, 2026

Resolution source

usgs.gov

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Aug 17, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Aug 20, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 29% and NO 71%, based on 14 predictions and 623 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against usgs.gov once the outcome is known.

Is “Will Kilauea drop back to "NORMAL" (back to normal)?” real-money betting?

No. “Will Kilauea drop back to "NORMAL" (back to normal)?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.