Will Kilauea be put on 'WATCH' (heightened alert) or higher?

🤖 Context

YES if the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) records Kilauea's Volcano Alert Level as 'WATCH' (heightened alert) or 'WARNING' at any time strictly after 00:00 on September 2, 2026 and no later than 00:00 on September 5, 2026. The primary source is the USGS Volcano Hazards Program, including the Volcano Notification Service or Volcano Updates, and independent news that explicitly quotes USGS notices is acceptable. Only the USGS 'Volcano Alert Level' field counts and changes only to the Aviation Color Code do not qualify.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Sep 2, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 5, 2026. The outcome will be settled against volcanoes.usgs.gov. For now, the crowd puts YES at 42%, based on 36 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

42%

Predictions made

36

Credits staked

1,068

Comments

1

Opened

Sep 1, 2026

Closes

Sep 2, 2026

Expected resolution

Sep 5, 2026

Resolution source

volcanoes.usgs.gov

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Sep 2, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Sep 5, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 42% and NO 58%, based on 36 predictions and 1.1K 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against volcanoes.usgs.gov once the outcome is known.

Is “Will Kilauea be put on 'WATCH' (heightened alert) or higher?” real-money betting?

No. “Will Kilauea be put on 'WATCH' (heightened alert) or higher?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.