Will Kilauea be put on "WATCH" (heightened alert) or higher?

🤖 Context

YES if the USGS Volcano Hazards Program records Kilauea at alert level 'WATCH' (heightened alert) or 'WARNING' (top alert, eruption imminent) at any time strictly after 00:00 UTC on August 25, 2026 and strictly before 00:00 UTC on August 28, 2026. A status listed as 'UNASSIGNED' or 'no data' does not count. Resolution will follow the USGS Volcano Hazards Program (Volcano Notification Service or the public 'Volcano Updates' page).

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Aug 25, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 28, 2026. The outcome will be settled against volcanoes.usgs.gov. For now, the crowd puts YES at 44%, based on 3 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

44%

Predictions made

3

Credits staked

50

Comments

0

Opened

Aug 24, 2026

Closes

Aug 25, 2026

Expected resolution

Aug 28, 2026

Resolution source

volcanoes.usgs.gov

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Aug 25, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Aug 28, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 44% and NO 56%, based on 3 predictions and 50 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against volcanoes.usgs.gov once the outcome is known.

Is “Will Kilauea be put on "WATCH" (heightened alert) or higher?” real-money betting?

No. “Will Kilauea be put on "WATCH" (heightened alert) or higher?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.