Will the U.S. and Iran publicly say they've concluded a bilateral agreement on managing the Strait of Hormuz?

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YES if, no later than August 23, 2026, two or more independent reputable news outlets report that Juan Manuel Serrano physically attended the Audiencia Nacional and was examined or allowed the court‑ordered 'clonado' inspection of his mobile phone as cited in EFE's August 16, 2026 article, or if the Audiencia Nacional registry or its press office explicitly confirms the in‑person attendance and completion of the verification. Otherwise NO. Attendance only by video, appearing only to file paperwork without undergoing or allowing the verification, or a postponed or cancelled hearing resolve NO.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Aug 17, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 24, 2026. The outcome will be settled against efe.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 51%, based on 2 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledSerrano's presence seems unlikely given the skepticism around his willingness to comply with judicial verification. Without reliable reports by tomorrow, I'm betting no.

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