Will Russian forces carry out an air, missile, or drone strike that hits the SBU headquarters in Kyiv?

68%
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50%
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YES if on September 8, 2026 Juan Jesús Vivas holds in-person meetings in Brussels in which he meets face-to-face with each of the three named officials to discuss the Ceuta migration crisis, and those meetings are reported by at least two independent national or European news outlets. Confirmations from the European Commission and/or the European Parliament can be used as supporting sources. If any of the three meetings did not occur in person in Brussels on that date (for example were cancelled, postponed, held only by phone/video, or held on a different date), the market resolves NO.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Sep 8, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 8, 2026. The outcome will be settled against efe.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 50%, based on 0 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledGiven the timing and the need for multiple independent confirmations, it seems unlikely that all three meetings will happen as planned. I'm betting NO on this one.

68%
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63%
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46%
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38%
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83%
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70%
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