Will Mercedes be first in the constructors' standings after the Dutch GP on August 23?

94%
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24%
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YES if the official Stage 2 finishing classification lists Joshua Tarling in positions 1 through 5 inclusive, otherwise NO. If Tarling does not start the stage, abandons before the finish, is disqualified, or if Stage 2 is cancelled or neutralised with no official stage classification, this market resolves NO. Resolution will be based on the official Stage 2 classification published by the Vuelta organisers, corroborated by the UCI and major wire services.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Aug 23, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 23, 2026. The outcome will be settled against lequipe.fr. For now, the crowd puts YES at 24%, based on 37 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledNo
Given the stakes and the competitive field, Tarling's chances for a top 5 finish look slim unless he surprises. I wouldn't bet on it.

94%
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87%
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59%
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39%
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29%
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66%
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