Will the U.S. and Iran publicly say they've concluded a bilateral agreement on managing the Strait of Hormuz?

13%
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26%
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YES if two or more independent authoritative news outlets report that José Gabriel Espinoza ceased to hold the office of Minister of Economy and Public Finances in Bolivia, through formal dismissal, acceptance of a resignation, or an official announcement of a replacement, no later than September 7, 2026. Preferably those reports include an official statement from the Presidency of the Plurinational State of Bolivia. Otherwise NO.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Sep 7, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 8, 2026. The outcome will be settled against efe.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 26%, based on 32 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledGiven the timeline and the need for credible reports, it’s unlikely Espinoza will leave office before September. The political stability suggests he’ll stay put for now.

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31%
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31%
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12%
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41%
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82%
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