Will the Russian vessel seized by Norway be returned to Russian custody?

21%
Stable · last 24h

85%
Stable · last 24h
YES if Jean‑Luc Mélenchon is physically present in Lille on 5 September 2026 and gives a spoken address from a public stage or podium that is part of the Braderie de Lille on that date. Merely appearing in the city, meeting people off‑stage, issuing a prerecorded message, or speaking remotely does not count. The market resolves based on contemporaneous reporting by major news organisations or a statement from the Braderie de Lille organisers (for example Franceinfo or AFP).
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Sep 5, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 5, 2026. The outcome will be settled against franceinfo.fr. For now, the crowd puts YES at 85%, based on 73 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledSpeech announced on their website

21%
Stable · last 24h

60%
Stable · last 24h

37%
Stable · last 24h

17%
Stable · last 24h

50%
+13% last 24h

27%
-25% last 24h
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