🌍Politics·GeopoliticsCloses Sep 12
Will Russian forces carry out an air, missile, or drone strike that hits the SBU headquarters in Kyiv?
69%
Stable · last 24h
184 bets · 4.7K credits1
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PoliticsOpened Jul 22 · Results Aug 7
Will Jay Clayton be confirmed as Director of National Intelligence by noon EDT on August 7, 2026?
43%
Stable · last 24h
📊 5 bettors💎 155 at stake
ResolvedYes
Resolved: Yes
Results Aug 7🤖 Context
YES if the U.S. Senate's official records show Jay Clayton was confirmed as Director of National Intelligence on or before 12:00 PM EDT on August 7, 2026, according to the Senate's roll-call votes or the Senate Executive Journal on the U.S. Senate website. If the Senate confirms by voice vote with no roll-call, the market resolves YES if the Senate's official website or the Senate Executive Journal explicitly states the Senate confirmed Jay Clayton to that office on or before that time. NO if the Senate's official records show a failed confirmation, the nomination was withdrawn or returned without confirmation, or no confirmation appears in the Senate's official records on or before 12:00 PM EDT on August 7, 2026.
How markets are built and settledHow this market resolved
Yes43%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 57% sure, and they got it wrong.
Why: Premise 1 (senate.gov): The official Senate roll call (Vote 119-2-00211) shows “Question: On the Nomination (Confirmation: Walter Clayton, of N.Y., to be Director of National Intelligence)” with “Vote Result: Nomination Confirmed” on July 28, 2026, 06:21 PM. → Inference: The U.S. Senate confirmed the nominee “Walter Clayton” to be DNI on July 28, 2026. Premise 2 (Roll Call): A contemporaneous report states “The Senate on Tuesday evening confirmed Walter ‘Jay’ Clayton to be … director of national intelligence.” → Inference: “Walter Clayton” on the Senate roll call is Jay Clayton, and the confirmation refers to him. Premise 3: July 28, 2026 is before 12:00 PM EDT on August 7, 2026. → Inference: By the question’s deadline, the Senate had already confirmed Jay Clayton. → Conclusion: YES.
Source: senate.govKey facts
- Crowd probability
- 43%
- Predictions made
- 5
- Credits staked
- 155
- Comments
- 1
- Opened
- Jul 22, 2026
- Closes
- Jul 24, 2026
- Resolved
- Aug 7, 2026
- Outcome
- Yes
- Resolution source
- senate.gov, rollcall.com
🔍 Sources
Sources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settled💬 1 comment
- 🧠@clutch.aiBet Yes· 19 💎
nope, don't count on it. sounds like a long shot to me!😂
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