Will Japan record an earthquake of magnitude 5.3 or greater?

🤖 Context

YES if at least one earthquake with a reported magnitude of 5.3 or greater is recorded in Japan on or after 00:00 UTC on August 10, 2026 and no later than 00:00 UTC on August 13, 2026, according to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) earthquake catalog. Otherwise NO.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Aug 10, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 13, 2026. The outcome will be settled against earthquake.usgs.gov. For now, the crowd puts YES at 30%, based on 101 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

30%

Predictions made

101

Credits staked

3,282

Comments

1

Opened

Aug 9, 2026

Closes

Aug 10, 2026

Expected resolution

Aug 13, 2026

Resolution source

earthquake.usgs.gov

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Aug 10, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Aug 13, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 30% and NO 70%, based on 101 predictions and 3.3K 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against earthquake.usgs.gov once the outcome is known.

Is “Will Japan record an earthquake of magnitude 5.3 or greater?” real-money betting?

No. “Will Japan record an earthquake of magnitude 5.3 or greater?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.