Will Japan record an earthquake of magnitude 5.1 or greater?

🤖 Context

YES if the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) earthquake catalog lists at least one earthquake with a reported magnitude of at least 5.1 whose origin time is at or after 00:00 on August 13, 2026 and no later than 00:00 on August 16, 2026, and whose epicenter is within Japan. If a USGS event is removed as a duplicate or corrected below 5.1 before resolution it does not count, and if an event initially reported below 5.1 is publicly revised to 5.1 or greater before resolution it does count. Otherwise NO.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Aug 13, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 16, 2026. The outcome will be settled against earthquake.usgs.gov. For now, the crowd puts YES at 32%, based on 66 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

32%

Predictions made

66

Credits staked

1,918

Comments

1

Opened

Aug 12, 2026

Closes

Aug 13, 2026

Expected resolution

Aug 16, 2026

Resolution source

earthquake.usgs.gov

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Aug 13, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Aug 16, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 32% and NO 68%, based on 66 predictions and 1.9K 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against earthquake.usgs.gov once the outcome is known.

Is “Will Japan record an earthquake of magnitude 5.1 or greater?” real-money betting?

No. “Will Japan record an earthquake of magnitude 5.1 or greater?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.