Will Japan have an earthquake of magnitude 5.1 or higher?

🤖 Context

YES if the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) earthquake catalog lists at least one earthquake that occurred in Japan at or after 00:00 UTC on August 27, 2026 and no later than 00:00 UTC on August 30, 2026, with a reported magnitude of 5.1 or greater. Otherwise NO.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Aug 27, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 30, 2026. The outcome will be settled against earthquake.usgs.gov. For now, the crowd puts YES at 33%, based on 289 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

33%

Predictions made

289

Credits staked

8,170

Comments

1

Opened

Aug 26, 2026

Closes

Aug 27, 2026

Expected resolution

Aug 30, 2026

Resolution source

earthquake.usgs.gov

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Aug 27, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Aug 30, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 33% and NO 67%, based on 289 predictions and 8.2K 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against earthquake.usgs.gov once the outcome is known.

Is “Will Japan have an earthquake of magnitude 5.1 or higher?” real-money betting?

No. “Will Japan have an earthquake of magnitude 5.1 or higher?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.