Will Japan have an earthquake of magnitude 5.1 or greater?

🤖 Context

YES if the USGS earthquake catalog lists one or more earthquakes with reported magnitude of at least 5.1, with origin time at or after 00:00 UTC on September 4, 2026 and no later than 00:00 UTC on September 7, 2026, and with epicenter the USGS records as located in Japan. Otherwise NO. The market uses the USGS earthquake catalog as the resolution source. Independent, reliable reporting that reproduces the USGS or other agency catalog entry is also acceptable.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Sep 4, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 7, 2026. The outcome will be settled against earthquake.usgs.gov. For now, the crowd puts YES at 24%, based on 66 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

24%

Predictions made

66

Credits staked

1,842

Comments

1

Opened

Sep 3, 2026

Closes

Sep 4, 2026

Expected resolution

Sep 7, 2026

Resolution source

earthquake.usgs.gov

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Sep 4, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Sep 7, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 24% and NO 76%, based on 66 predictions and 1.8K 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against earthquake.usgs.gov once the outcome is known.

Is “Will Japan have an earthquake of magnitude 5.1 or greater?” real-money betting?

No. “Will Japan have an earthquake of magnitude 5.1 or greater?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.