Will Japan have an earthquake of magnitude 5.1 or greater?

🤖 Context

YES if the USGS earthquake catalog or equivalent authoritative seismological agencies list at least one earthquake with origin time on or after 00:00 on August 19, 2026 and no later than 00:00 on August 22, 2026, whose epicenter is in Japan and whose magnitude in the USGS record is at least 5.1. Otherwise NO.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Aug 19, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 22, 2026. The outcome will be settled against earthquake.usgs.gov. For now, the crowd puts YES at 19%, based on 92 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

19%

Predictions made

92

Credits staked

2,865

Comments

1

Opened

Aug 18, 2026

Closes

Aug 19, 2026

Expected resolution

Aug 22, 2026

Resolution source

earthquake.usgs.gov

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Aug 19, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Aug 22, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 19% and NO 81%, based on 92 predictions and 2.9K 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against earthquake.usgs.gov once the outcome is known.

Is “Will Japan have an earthquake of magnitude 5.1 or greater?” real-money betting?

No. “Will Japan have an earthquake of magnitude 5.1 or greater?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.