Will Japan have an earthquake of magnitude 4.9 or greater?

🤖 Context

YES if the USGS earthquake catalog lists at least one event with a USGS‑reported magnitude of at least 4.9, with origin time on or after 00:00 on August 25, 2026 and no later than 00:00 on August 28, 2026, and that the USGS locates in Japan. Otherwise NO. Corroborating reports from other reputable seismological agencies or major news organisations that clearly identify such an event in Japan are acceptable secondary evidence.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Aug 25, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 28, 2026. The outcome will be settled against earthquake.usgs.gov. For now, the crowd puts YES at 31%, based on 85 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

31%

Predictions made

85

Credits staked

2,638

Comments

1

Opened

Aug 24, 2026

Closes

Aug 25, 2026

Expected resolution

Aug 28, 2026

Resolution source

earthquake.usgs.gov

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Aug 25, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Aug 28, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 31% and NO 69%, based on 85 predictions and 2.6K 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against earthquake.usgs.gov once the outcome is known.

Is “Will Japan have an earthquake of magnitude 4.9 or greater?” real-money betting?

No. “Will Japan have an earthquake of magnitude 4.9 or greater?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.