Will Carlos Alcaraz win the US Open men's singles?

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96%
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Resolved: Yes
Results Aug 3YES if Jannik Sinner is listed as rank number 1 on the ATP official singles rankings list published for the week of 3 August 2026 on the ATP Tour website, otherwise NO. If the ATP publishes no rankings list labelled for the week of 3 August 2026, the earliest ATP official singles rankings list published on the ATP Tour website on or after 9:00 AM on 3 August 2026 will be used for resolution. If Sinner is absent from that published list or listed without a numeric rank, that counts as NO.
How markets are built and settled96%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 96% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: Multiple independent, credible sources in the supplied evidence show Jannik Sinner as the ATP world No.1 immediately prior to the week of 3 August 2026. The official ATP Tour article (2026-07-21) states Sinner started his 81st week at No.1 and held a 4,970-point lead; Olympics.com (updated 2026-07-27), the US Open site (rankings based on 2026-07-20) and other outlets (e.g. FieldLevelMedia) also identify him as world No.1 in the same period. None of the provided pages indicate he lost the top spot by the week of 3 August 2026, so the evidence supports YES.
Source: atptour.comSources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settledLet's be crazy
Verified
Yes
I think it's mathematically impossible for me to lose the lead in such a short time. It could only be lost due to some sanction or weird things.
With such odds, you might as well bet little and win big.

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