Will Mercedes be first in the constructors' standings after the Dutch GP on August 23?

94%
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20%
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YES if J. Thomas is listed as the champion of the 2026 BMW Championship (Bellerive Country Club, St. Louis) on the final official tournament leaderboard published after the event concludes on August 23, 2026, including if he wins in a playoff after 72 holes. The market will use the PGA Tour official leaderboard or ESPN's BMW Championship leaderboard, with the PGA Tour preferred if they differ, and corroboration by major wire services like AP or Reuters. If the tournament is canceled or no official champion is declared, the market resolves NO.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Aug 20, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 24, 2026. The outcome will be settled against espn.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 20%, based on 12 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledThe top 50 in the world are present and he is clearly not among the favorites and hasn't won any tournaments in a long time; his victory would be a surprise.
With just a few hours left, it seems unlikely Thomas makes a last-minute surge. Current leaderboard doesn't show him in contention, so I doubt he’ll win this one.

94%
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73%
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54%
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81%
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56%
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67%
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