Will Israel and Hamas publicly agree to a ceasefire with a stated start time?

🤖 Context

YES if, no later than August 24, 2026, both (a) an Israeli government office (for example the Prime Minister’s Office, the Israel Defense Forces, or the foreign ministry) and (b) Hamas (via an official Hamas spokesperson, Gaza authorities, or Hamas‑controlled media) publicly announce a mutually agreed ceasefire or truce that includes an explicit start time or start condition, and two or more independent international news organizations report that both sides agreed. Otherwise NO. Resolution will be based on reporting by two or more independent international news organizations (for example AP, Reuters, BBC).

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Aug 24, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 25, 2026. The outcome will be settled against apnews.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 21%, based on 60 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

21%

Predictions made

60

Credits staked

1,798

Comments

1

Opened

Aug 17, 2026

Closes

Aug 24, 2026

Expected resolution

Aug 25, 2026

Resolution source

apnews.com

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Aug 24, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Aug 25, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 21% and NO 79%, based on 60 predictions and 1.8K 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against apnews.com once the outcome is known.

Is “Will Israel and Hamas publicly agree to a ceasefire with a stated start time?” real-money betting?

No. “Will Israel and Hamas publicly agree to a ceasefire with a stated start time?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.