Will the US and Iran both publicly announce a mutual ceasefire by Aug 10, 2026?

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YES if, no later than August 12, 2026, the governments of Iran and Oman publish a joint public announcement (a signed agreement text, a joint press release, a jointly issued ministerial statement, or a joint press‑conference transcript) that explicitly states they have reached and publicly announced a formal intergovernmental agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz for transit. Otherwise NO. Verification will rely on official statements from the governments of Iran and Oman and reporting by major news agencies such as The Associated Press or Reuters.
Sources used to create this market
Given the tight timeframe and the lack of signals from either government, I doubt we'll see a joint announcement by August 12. Not happening.

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