Will tropical cyclone Karina reach Saffir‑Simpson Category 4 intensity?

37%
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52%
Stable · last 24h
YES if the National Hurricane Center issues at least one operational public advisory that classifies the disturbance identified as Invest 97L in the linked Fox Weather article as a "Tropical Depression" or "Tropical Storm" at any time before the system's circulation center first makes onshore landfall in Texas or Louisiana. NO otherwise. A post‑season reanalysis or any classification issued only after the system's first landfall in Texas or Louisiana does not count. If the system never makes landfall in Texas or Louisiana but the NHC classifies it beforehand, count YES.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Sep 1, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 2, 2026. The outcome will be settled against foxweather.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 52%, based on 0 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledIt's unlikely that Invest 97L will get classified before landfall. With only a few hours left and no current advisories from the NHC, I’d bet on NO.

37%
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17%
Stable · last 24h

65%
Stable · last 24h

67%
Stable · last 24h

64%
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70%
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