Will Amazon Leo have 400 or more satellites in orbit by Aug 31, 2026?

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YES if the National Hurricane Center (NHC) or another official meteorological agency issues an operational public advisory no later than 11:59 on August 21, 2026 (EDT) that designates the same disturbance the NHC identified as Invest 94L as a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm (i.e., classifies it as a tropical cyclone). If an advisory renumbers the system, count as YES only if it explicitly links the newly designated tropical cyclone to Invest 94L. Otherwise NO.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Aug 15, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 21, 2026. The outcome will be settled against foxweather.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 50%, based on 0 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledGiven that Invest 94L is already showing significant development, the NHC's classification seems likely within the next week. Counting on their track record, I expect it to become a tropical depression.

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